Some instructors may wish to present goal programming or the analytic hierarchy process here. Likewise, Chapter 16 delves into the additive utility function for decision making. For example, Chapters 8 and 15 discuss judgmental aspects of probability assessment and decision making, and an instructor can introduce more behavioral material at these points. The text can be reasonably well adapted to different curricula additional material (readings, cases, problems from other sources) can be included easily at many different points. Give them an interesting problem, ask them to discuss the objectives and tradeoffs, and you will have trouble getting them to be quiet! Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools provides a one-semester introduction to the tools and concepts of decision analysis. This early introduction to this material has proven to be an excellent motivator for students. Although complete discussion of modeling and analysis techniques are put off until later, students should have enough information so that they can analyze simple multiattribute models after finishing Chapter 4. The discussion of model structuring integrates notions of tradeoffs and multiple objectives, something new to the second edition of the book. Discussions with decision analysts confirm that in most real-world applications, the majority of the time is spent in structuring the problem, and this is where most of the important insights are found and creative new alternatives invented. One must decide exactly what aspects of a problem are to be included in a model and make fundamental modeling choices regarding how to represent each facet. It is in the structuring phase that one comes to terms with the decision situation, clarifies one’s objectives in the context of that situation, and confronts questions regarding the problem’s essential elements. This part of the process is undoubtedly the most critical. The first section of the book deals with structuring decision models. The Darden cases are grouped together at the end of each of the three sections. In addition, we have added 15 cases from Darden Business Publishing. New examples and problems have been added throughout the text and some chapters have either been completely rewritten (Chapters 5 & 11) or are entirely new (Chapters 6 & 13). The emphasis of the text is on the development of models to represent decision situations and the use of probability and utility theory to represent uncertainties and preferences, respectively, in those models. GENERAL INFORMATION INTRODUCTION Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools, 3rd Edition presents the basic techniques of modern decision analysis. International Guidance and Controls George’s T-Shirts Chapter 7 Chapter 8 Chapter 9 Chapter 10 Chapter 11 Chapter 12 Chapter 13 Section 2 Cases Lac Leman Festival de la Musique Sprigg Lane Appshop, Inc. Table of Contents GENERAL INFORMATION Introduction Influence Diagrams Decision Analysis SoftwareĬHAPTER NOTES AND PROBLEM SOLUTIONS Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Section 1 Cases Athens Glass Works Integrated Siting Systems, Inc. Clemen Duke University Robin Dillon Georgetown University Terence Reilly Babson College Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools, 3rd Ed.
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